Changes in compound extremes of rainfall and temperature over West Africa using CMIP5 simulations

Abstract This study aims to characterize changes in compound extremes of rainfall and temperature over West Africa. For this purpose, data from CHIRPS observations, the ERA5 reanalysis, twenty-four (24) climate models involved CMIP5 Project were analyzed. First, evaluated terms their capacity simulate summer mean climatology during historical period (1981–2005), secondly, examined under RCP8.5 emission scenario between near future (2031–2055) far (2071–2095) relative period. Despite presence some biases, ensemble well reproduces patterns Africa at seasonal intraseasonal timescales. The analysis with CHIRPS/ERA5 dataset shows a strong occurrence dry/warm mode northern Sahel June-July-August-September (JJAS; main rainy season) Guinean region February-March-April-May season (FMAM; first season). These occurrences are due weak highly frequent precipitation recorded these zones. wet/warm is JJAS Sudanian zone (transition area regions), while FMAM, its maximum region. also that will increase whole (western central) futures decrease suggests be prone drought intensified by warmer temperatures calls for action adaptation strategies mitigate risks on rain-fed agriculture, energy, animals human health.